5* graded play on the Phillies as they take on the Braves set to start at 1:35 PM ET. My proprietary MLB handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game and extend their National League East lead to 3 1/2 games over the Braves entering the all star break.

The current MLB odds show the Phillies with Cole Hamels a significant MLB betting favorite at $1.70, but based on the simulator projections this is a vastly under valued line.

The two best teams in baseball have used their elite pitching staffs to stymie both offensive lineups with the first two games being decided in extra innings. With the Braves win, the Phillies and Braves remain the only two team sin the majors to avoid being swept on any three or four game series this season. 

Game 2 of this series featured remarkable pitching by both Cliff Lee and Tommy Hanson. Both pitched well enough to earn a win in this game and Cliff Lee even added his first career home run. That was the only run the Phillies would score and only John Mayberry made it to second base with his double to lead off the sixth inning.

I had predicted this game to go over the total of 6.5, but fell short as the Braves took the 4-1 win.

Both bullpens were exceptional as the Phillies Bastardo pitched a scoreless ninth after Leepleted eight innings of work. He has extended his scoreless innings streak to 15 innings and has allowed just one hit to the last 45 batters he has faced. Phillies left-hander Juan Perez pitched a perfect 10th inning striking out two batters. He also struck out the side in the ninth inning on the minimum nine pitches in Friday’s night game. 

The Phillies had the bases loaded in the ninth and failed to score and then Braves reliever Sherill shut the door on them with the bases loaded in the tenth inning too. 

Derick Lowe

Lowe has posted a 4.21 ERA with a 1.364 WHIP allowing only seven home runs, but has walked 41 batters while striking out just 80 batters in 107 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 4.76 ERA with a 1.471 WHIP allowing 17 hits in 17 total innings of work. Chase Utley has batted .400 (12-for-30) with two home runs against Lowe. 

Cole Hamels has the potential pitching in the fourth slot of the rotation to get on a huge winning run andpete for the Cy Young award. He is 10-4 with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.952 WHIP in 19 starts this season. Moreover, he has posted a 1.80 ERA and a 1.050 WHIP walking just three batters while striking out 12 batters in this last three starts spanning 20 innings of work. 

He has allowed a .238 team batting average to the current members of the Braves roster in their respective careers. Chipper Jones is batting .313 (10-for-32) against Hamels, but had a surgical procedure done to repair a torn meniscus in his knee Saturday. His loss will make an already anemic offense even weaker and Hamels will have no problem containing them in this game 

Supporting System

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 50-13 for 79.4% winners making 29.7 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play against betting odds road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 and is a below average hitting team batting .255 or less and with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season and now facing an excellent national league starting pitcher posting an ERA of 2.70 or less on the season.

My Pick: Take the Philadelphia Phillies.

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